HISTORY OF PREVIOUS YEARS AT C.I. SIG: Here are meeting announcements (some earlier ones re-edited post meeting). Link to the year range of interest by clicking on the following Hyperlinks.
For each period listed, the programs are presented in reverse order - that is, later meetings at the top of the page.
MEETING LOCATION NEWS: In 2008-09, both the CI SIG and TCUG will meet at the Huntington Valley Community Center atop the Library at 625 Red Lion Road in Huntington Valley. Here are access tips from the four corners of the compass:
From the Willow Grove Turnpike exit at Abington go south, turn left at Route 63 east (Old Welsh Road-Philmont Pike) to Huntington Pike. Turn left, then right in about 1/3 mile onto Red Lion Road. The Library/Community Center is a few hundred feet ahead on the left. Park on the South side of the building, enter the door at the west end of the south side and take the elevator to the top floor Community Center room. Don't use the main Library entrance on the North side.
Coming from the East on the Turnpike, you might exit the Turnpike onto Route 1 south and turn right near to NE Philly Airport onto Red Lion road going Northwest. Near the northwestern end of Red Lion you will see the library on the right and the Huntington Valley Fire Station opposite. Turn right into the south parking lot loop road.
Red Lion Road northwest is also a good route from NE Philadelphia area and Huntington Valley Pike east from northern Philadelphia.
For map details Google the library/address.
BY MONTH SCHEDULE: For 2009, the CI SIG is scheduled to meet monthly on the third Saturday of each month. There is a possible change in date for the June meeting (to be posted when determined). The TCUG meets at this same location, but on the second Saturday except in August, when the meeting is on the First Saturday (August 1st).
Meeting dates are subject to change due to weather or other conditions, so bookmark this page and check-in for last minute changes. If you have signed up for the SIGs E-Mails you can check for change notices there.
ALL CI SIG MEETINGS IN 2008(December) and 2009 ARE scheduled ON THE 3RD SATURDAY OF THEIR RESPECTIVE MONTHS.
ALL TCUG MEETINGS ARE ON THE SECOND SATURDAY OF THEIR RESPECTIVE MONTHS EXCEPT IN AUGUST WHEN THE MEETING IS ON AUGUST 1ST.
ALL WELCOME: Both the CI SIG and unaffiliated TC2007 U.G. meetings are open to ANY interested investor. You need not be a member of AAII nor a user of Worden Brothers TC2007 product to attend and benefit. Topics vary, to support novice to "pro" investors.
Inspiring questions for discussion or recommendations on a good web site, a publication article are fine. Just suggesting a new idea enlivens discussion. For example, Stu Shapiros common ground TA challenge involked only two responses, both of which inspired Stu to some new approachs and profits which he shares with us. TIPS FOR PRESENTERS: The popular USB memory stick is the best way to bring in presentation content or files to share. The meeting provides a Windows Laptop and Projector, or bring your own. Popular file formats supported include most Microsoft Office formats (including the new 2007 Word and Excel formats, although the older 2003 formats (including Power Point) are best for items to be shared). We also support Adobe/PDF and other widely used image formats.
TC2007 is always available on a laptop. (Some other popular TA file formats often supported include METASTOCK, QUOTES PLUS, AmiBroker, Stock Finder and more, but please precheck on their availability at specific meetings.)
Both groups are non-profit, so there only a small meeting hall rental donation to attend. Donations for noon breaktime refreshments are suggested, or bring you own. CHECK THIS PAGE or your AAII CI SIG Mail List e-mail for the latest information on CI SIG activities. When the weather or other factors make a last minute change to a meeting schedule, we try to immediately post a notice here as well as send an e-mail to those who have signed up for the SIG e-mail service. Remember "If in Doubt, Check In!".
Remember, our meetings are now non-pre-planned. So it's up to you to occasionally bring a topic to present, a question to provoke discussion or a brief report on something of interest. Without a shared effort, there will be no meeting content. If you are in doubt, just check with our SIG management about choice of topics and help you many need in presenting. Join us, and bring along some ideas, your questions plus a stock pick for the monthly contest.
For some talk about this, some ideas, and an assessment of our prospects, see you there on Saturday. Bring along some of your own ideas to present, a few questions and even a friend who may benefit from our group grope.
As for the pick a stock contest maybe we'll give a prize for the stock picker who looses the least.
BTW: Take a look at the note above about Worden's BLOCKS for Free. It might be a better Lunch than our almost free one........
Remember the old one that goes "The beatings will continue until moral improves.". Now doesn't that make you feel better.
Never mind, the meetings will continue! Since we have to make some money to pay for all of these inconveniences, we have to find out if there is some action in the market - or merely a frustrating summer of irregular market action. After all torture is best when accompanied by dripping water.
So once again, into the fray come our stalward market timers, charters and crystal ball readers. But what's YOUR idea on the market's progress. Come along and share - some good ideas, soon good eats, and even someone to hold your shaking little hand ......Hey, two out of three is good enough unless you are playing Tiger Woods.
Remember to bring a favorite stock chart to discuss, if nothing else is announced.
* PROPHETS and PROFITS: Our monthly “pick a stock” Contest is a splendid example of both. Ever notice where you finish vs. some of the member names that picked the top three movers? Ever notice how many of the top three names occur more often than random chance. Makes you wonder if it’s more than just luck – maybe talent and diligence might play a part. That might just be due to some crafty Technical Analysis and Interpretation.
Anyway, let’s see what stocks brought fame and perhaps fortune to three ”picky” members as we hit the contest trail again. Let’s hope they put their money where their mouth was. And that they tell us how they made their choice, too.
* ART OF THE CHART: Stu-time again. So what is the Master of Charts predicting now? In March, he correctly prophesized that there would be a good month leading up to Tax Day. Score another one for Stu. But what will Stu now predict as we near the summer doldrums? And will Stu yet again divine a way to play this different market mode?
You must come to hear it straight from our Prophet’s mouth, as Stu divines again.
* CRAZY LIKE A FOX: Dr. Alexander Elder had an odd assignment as a shrink in the old Soviet Union. For the government reasoned, “Wasn’t a person someone insane to oppose the glorious Soviet system?” Thus it became Dr. Elder’s assignment to quietly remove dissidents from society by committing them as insane. The process was almost as good as sending them to the Gulag, and due to the sorry state of Soviet medicine, a lot cheaper.
It stuck Dr. Elder that this concept was what was crazy. For quite lucid victims the system was sending him seemed not only normal, but quite perceptive; especially when compared with real patients who did need mental help. So he traded in his doctor’s couch for a CRT connecting him to the western world of investing. While the market also has moments of insanity; to the good Doctors trained mind, it did seem a more rational and rewarding career.
At a recent Money Show, Dr. Elder showed an insanely simple TC 200x-based system to evaluate world markets/sectors for mental health status. So we’ll spend some time seeing how Dr. Elder is a real fox.
* BLOCKING and TACKLING: Years ago, I thought I had a fairly useful indicator setup in Metastock. Suddenly it was gone, or rather, rendered useless; when Metastock quietly corrected a miscalculation in one build-in indicator’s mathematics. It took me months to make a “defective” version of this now corrected indicator to replicate my previous results. Then I suddenly lost it all in a machine crash. So much for that idea and the wisdom of making periodic backups!
However that brings up a good question - are we sure that different TA products all produce the same results? That came home to me as I attempted a conversion from one of Stu’s TC200x PCFs to Blocks 3 using my choice of Real Code, Drag and Drop and other Blocks tools. It was a fine way to learn a bit more about Blocks 3’s new capabilities.
Along the way, I also did some deconstruction and reconstruction using those two products as well as Metastock (and perhaps others). As to my results, or lack thereof, you’ll find out on Saturday.
* SARry: At the recent TCUG, use of Wilders SAR (stop and reverse) indicator was demonstrated. It’s a cool way to avoid the trap of falling in love with your current mover, only to see your profits dwindle away as your mover stops and reverses. Works well in both up and down markets, but is SAR the beginning and the end? So here, time permitting, will be an initial look at the often overlooked task of GETTING OUT WHILE THE GETTING IS GOOD!
* COMING TO AN END: The Chapter’s 2007-2008 season of meetings is indeed winding down. Only two more meetings til summer. On Primary Day, we’ll have a standing room only visit from Hillary. Only our Hillary will have a better message for the future – Profits! Come vote for Hillary (Kramer) at 7 PM sharp, just after the polls close. With an event like this, we can wait to find out about how the other Hillary did for a few hours.
In May, we wrap up the season with the AAII’s Wayne Thorp. Wayne will talk about Screening” our way to profits.
Together these two meetings make a timely pair – Hillary suggests the pathway (plus a few stocks) and we use Wayne’s techniques to validate her picks and perhaps make a few of our own. In a year for change in the world, politics and economies, it’s always good to have a list of investment choices for the moment and the future.
After that, it’s on to our own CI SIG summer school.
Naturally, we'd love to have you take a few minutes to tip us onto your recent discoveries. There are a lot of vendors and merely nice quys who are posting unusual and valuable information on the web for all to use.
RUNNING WITH THE WIND: I’ve often mentioned the analogies between the Sailors environment and the Stock Market. Sailors must operate with wind and current variances different from their intended destination. With an aft wind, it’s easy to sail, but into a frontal gale, it’s seems nearly impossible as you must tack endlessly to even avoid being blown back into port or even the dock!
Of course, you point out that the Market is different – stocks usually rise slowly and drop rapidly (as January 2008 shows). But if we consider one constraint – a constant time-of-voyage, we see that tacking must be done at a proportionately high voyage speed, which leads to the concept of efficiency. Let’s say efficiency = distance(crow flight) / distance(actual distance sailed). It’s 10 miles across the bay, but the tacking route requires a 30 mile net voyage; the trip efficiency result is an efficiency of 33.3% (and a speed ratio of more than 333%, along with a crew frustration of considerably more.) (Check Sir Architech’s rantings on the Worden Blocks 2 discussion group.)
Now we Voyagers have to face several questions:
* Which way is the wind or market blowing? (Example: Check near the end of Wordens daily message on TC200x downloads. Note the various microclimes addressed. )
* Should I make the trip; and, if so, how and a what risk to me and my vessel?
* What tools do I have to make the trip (plus are they in condition and do I know how to use them effectively)?
* How do you plan for the trip – and how to cope with surprise changes in conditions during the trip?
* Assessing the trip results – was it worth it and what did I learn and earn from it?
At the January meeting, we will explore some of these concepts as they apply to the market, not sailing:
WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS: The market is a complex of micro-climates. These are a product of many factors: barometric readings, nearby terrain, sun, clouds, sea and more. Knowing your vehicles characteristics (stocks, bonds, funds, options, etc.) are also ways to get there faster and safer.
Also, we’ll look at some ways to get the weather report, with or without a radio.
TRAVELS: In a storm, staying in port (cash) is one approach. Coping with changing conditions once the trip is started needs a fast and sure adjustments. As we know, Stu is a fair weather sailor (no shorting or options for him), sailing when the conditions are right and picking his vehicle/tactics accordingly to conditions.
But’s Stu’s been researching how to travel when they are adverse. Saturday, he’s going to show us his newly-developed foul-weather travel system. Let’s call it “Making hay while the storm blows.” He’s noted it’s a workable concept you can use, too.
Somewhere in here we have to consider Courage. Do you have enough to risk the trip? Has your previous experience dulled your wanderlust? Did you pick up some bad habits? Would a session with your shrink (think CI SIG) help?
TOOLS: In addition to Stu’s own tools and yours, we’ll look as some conventional, if seldom used tools. I am reminded that John Murphy’s landmark book had an unusual characteristic. The first half on his most famous book scarcely mentioned “technical indicators” at all. It’s concerned primarily with what I call “straight line analysis”; that is support and resistance, trendlines and the like. There is even some attention paid to “Patterns”. (Only later, with some lack of enthusiasm, does he even get into those nasty “Technical Indicators”.)
Patterns, the things we seldom concentrate on; things like Double Bottoms, Breakouts and Flags are often overlooked at CI SIG, too.
John Bulkowski did get a lot of attention with his 2000 book “Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns”. While a scientific work, it unfortunately only considered a rising market interval – “into the bubble”. In his newly expanded version, his considers pattern performance in both rising and falling markets. (What about consolidating markets, John?) Can we learn from his work – let's give it a try?
TRIP PLANNING: How do you know when you are there, when you don't know where there is? No Plan = A random destination with random results. Stu’s backtesting is a premier example of learning from our own and others travel experiences. Stu’s also our most talented trip planner, so his progress shows the benefits of past trip assessments to future trip planning. Plan now or regret later.
TRIP ASSESSMENT: We’ve all been getting trip assessments – from Stu’s detailed ones to the results of our monthly contest (think MINUS SIGNS for January). We’ll use John’s book, some of our traditional tools and some new ones along the way as the make some test trips and real ones.
While not truly a Trip Assessment function, our Question and Answer sessions will not only help us get our boat configuration in order but to learn how to get the most value from using these tools. It’s a little like the Coast Guard Auxiliary courses for boaters.
The above is merely a framework for early 2008. We’ll not cover each topic fully in any month. Topics will come and go monthly depending on time, presenters and our groups interest, so you too have several jobs. Get hip on some topics so you can sail into a presenters slot. Talk to the crew to help them steer course for speed and comfort, even survival. Learn how to crew your own voyages. And surely report back on trip results as you qualify yourself for the Cup Races.
As to tools, the Internet, Wordens TC200X, Blocks, Metastock, Amibroker, Omnitrader, Quotes Plus and other tools will be tracked, demonstrated and operated – as our trip radar is needed to get out of port and navigate all phases of the trip.
Naturally, with this winters market storms, our main concern in January will be to survive them and even to bring home some positive results. If you stay in port, don’t forget winter-in-the-market is also be a time of planning and preparation for future trips in better weather.
OTHER CI SIG INFORMATION
NEWS and EVENTS at AAII - PHILADELPHIA CHAPTERs COMPUTERIZED INVESTING SPECIAL INTEREST GROUP, For more CI SIG information, check out our "articles" section posting on the Philadelphia Area Computer Society (PACS) web site. CI SIG is affiliated with both the AAII and PACS, your area society for computer education, training and information. While there, please check out the PACS program for computer users and mavens.
Some Recent Articles may also be found at our local CI link.
NEW LOCATION: We've moved!' Again! Again! (Update: in 2008, we meet at the Huntington Valley Community Center. See info at top of this page for more details.)
F FOR HISTORY OF PREVIOUS MEETING PLANS, SEE LINKS TO EARLIER YEARS AT THE TOP OF THIS PAGE!
Remember all PACS/AAII members and other friends of investing are welcome. Drop in any time. With our modular program, you can find interesting topics whether you arrive at 10 or 12.
When you come, bring a friend, too..
JUMP TO TOP OF THIS PAGE or to CHAPTER HOME PAGE
Hyperlink to COMPUTERIZED INVESTING SIG Meeting History Page 2004, COMPUTERIZED INVESTING SIG for more information. Click here for Getting There and More CI SIG Information.
SATURDAY DECEMBER 20, 2008: Rumor has it that Santa will be traveling light when he visits many homes this year. As the global malaise spreads, what does Technical Analysis say about some potential gifts (not from Santa or Washington by way of Illinois). We hope that our member TA mavens will continue their quest telling us how and where they are finding opportunities, and what "stay away" clues are also there.
AUGUST MEETING POSTING OMITTED
SATURDAY JULY 18, 2008: Oh, It hurts. Just don't look at the market prices too often. Do you think this is reality or is the ex-Senator from Texas smoking his doctorial diploma? Assuming we survive, now might be a good time to regroup, rearm and ready outselves for the "better day tomorrow" the politicos are telling us about.
COMPUTERIZED INVESTING SPECIAL INTEREST GROUP - WHERE WE MEET: