Dr. D returns again to give us his take on the "post" economy and market. Post-election, post-financial-trauma, post-death-of-your-portfolio, post-everything. As you may already know, Dr. D calls 'em like they are when it comes to the economy.
He's been a regular speaker at AAII/Philadelphia chapter, but never has he been scheduled at so critical a juncture in the nations economy. So bring your notebooks to record some first class observations and what developements you should look for and how to understand them as this shakeout settles down.
Also, we expect him to entertain questions from the audience on wither goeth out economy under the present conditions and new administration.
Tonights FOCUS (7 PM) Preceeding Dr. Dunkleburg will be our own President Dr. Gerald Levin, speaking on “Using Mutual Funds to ‘Buy at the Point of Maximum Pessimism’”.
I still remember his study on "reversion to the mean" some years ago - if we'd only remembered the current mean reversion might not have been so shocking. So with history as a guide, we can expect some more profitable words of wisdom on Dollar cost averaging, a simple way to guage when to sweep up bargains in Junk Bonds and more.
IBD is the "other" financial daily in the US. IBD focuses on markets: What's going on, who's doing it, what's the investment potential, and why. So it's more of an investors toolkit than just a financial newspaper.
IBDs perspective has evolved from founder and publisher William O'Neils own perspectives on investing and what information will best help the individual investor. He really built it on what he found he needed to be a successful investor. CANSLIM is his unique approach to distilling what's really important to picking winners in the future market. Based on his years of study and the massive computerized IBD data base, CANSLIM, with IBD aiding, can become the foundation of your investment research. Mr. LePlat will puy a copy of IBD in your hands and then use that copy as his explains the ins and outs of the fundamental CANSLIM approach.
While IBD might be called the "Toolkit for CANSLIM", there is much more to the paper. So it's not just data, charts and tables. It's a well organized package of information written to be used daily. Seldom are the articles long, always they are informative and focused.
For example, there are special profiles on emerging and reinvigorated companies you might not know of otherwise. Profiles of success, both companies and their leaders, are a regular feature, too.
There are lots of other regular features. There is a spritely editorial/features section, tutorials on reading basic market data charts plus information on "understanding behind the numbers" and more. There is even a touch of psychology; of the market, of successful investors and of yourself. So IBD is not just another financial paper, but really a tool kit for investing delivered daily for every market day..
he perspective is on trends, innovators and your development as an investor. There is a special focus on which companies and industry sectors are likely to be the new leaders in the economy. There is another focus on the company leaders - from what's worked in the past to what problems will be faced in the future.
If you've heard of the IBD 100, the Cup and Handle formation and Momentum investing, these are just a few of the popular tools IBD brings you.
Tonight we'll have a full meeting of presentations, Q and A, plus hands on IBD learning. You'll go home with some new ideas in your head plus some useful gifts under your arm to help you with your future learning.
NEXT MONTH: Dr. William Dunkelburg on the "Outlook for the U.S. Economy". We scheduled Dr. D early this spring, knowing that a new administration would be a great time for reassessing the state of the economy. Now, with financial turmoil added in, the Program Committees choice looks presequent.
Vetern AAII members know that Dr. Dunkelburg is always a welcome speaker. Now that there's so much more to talk about economically, this meeting will be a wonderful chance to get a head start on the new world we're in. Moreover, you'll have a chance to put those nagging questions to the good Doctor.
To night we're having two experts in practicing professors and practical leaders specializing in the subject. Mr. William Suplee IV of Structured Asset Management (a financial planning firm) and American College will join with Jeff Lewin, an elder law attorney will address those global problems of retirees: Where to get it, How to make it last and How to make the law work for you and your potential beneficiaries.
We're starting at 7PM sharp (no Focus presentation), to maximize time for both an excellent presentation and plenty of Q/A interaction. To get tickets to this popular series, visit the AAII/Philadelphia chapter via the AAII.com web site, or ise the coupon in your AAII member mailing. Note that the money saving Season Pass is again being offered, too.
In October Tom LePlat of Investors Business Daily will show us what IBD thinks tools and techniques active investors should have and how IDB is designed to provide a lot of the information and help they need. Unlike the WSJ, which is becoming more of a national newspaper of record for the news; IBD still focuses on the market data you need, its interpretation, stellar new and emerging companies and practical ways to make use of this data in your investing.
>p> So for a different media and a different take on matters investing wise, here's a night for you
Just after the November Election Dust has (hopefully) settled, Dr. William Dunkleburg returns to talk about "The Outlook for the U.S. Economy". We've managed to schedule his appearance well before the new President and Congress get their hands on the the nation, the economy and your pocketbook. In his previous visits, the good Doctor has shown his knowledge of things economic as well as their immediate and ultimate effect on each of us. Come prepared for some practical give and take. too.
Only this time it's a different, better, more tumely Hillary - Ms. Hillary Kramer! You've seen her on Channel 12's Nightly Business Report for bi-weekly, minutes-long snapshots. Now benefit from her knowledge during her hour-long presentation, her Question and Answer session and meet her at her book signing.
In troubled times, it especially pays to plan for the future, for it's sure to be different. That calls for Ms. Kramers special skills in Trend Spotting. Her predictions on what's hot in 2008 and beyond for the market, the economy and especially the market are of special interest to us all.
Tonight her two feature topics will be a combination of the new and old;
THE NEW: Energy/Alternate Energy technology opportunities and
THE OLD: What's ahead for the troubled real estate industry
plus of course, how to we make a buck from these trends.
However, expect a lot more. Ms. Kramer will be identifying specific opportunities as well as stocks she sees as best positioned to profit in these areas and perhaps elsewhere. Remember, there are often subscidiary beneficiaries to any trend, such as suppliers.
We've allocated extra time for an extended Question and Answer session. Probe more deeply into her recommendations, ask about some of your favorites, or for her suggestions on protecting your present positions and building for the future.
Thus her title says it all: Starting at 7 PM Sharp, her topic will be TREND SPOTTING: STAYING AHEAD OF THE CURVE.
Meeting starts at 7 PM sharp. There will be NO FOCUS PRESENTATION So come early for a good seat.
Tonight's speakers will first address a modern way to assess just what a prudent retiree will need to accumulate for that period. That's hard to do, for noone can predict ones life needs, what investments will bring and what taxes and living/health expenses will be. Yet there are tools and techniques to make the best of prudent estimates.
There is the problem of where to invest - real properties, equities, bonds, insurance product and more can be used. Knowing the advantages and shortcomings of each plus how the government treats each is also a consiteration. Moreover, the many insurance products offered to augment your savings can be both tempting and very confusing.
Our to experts will be focusing on these considerations during their presentation and at the Q/A session following.
TUESDAY OCTOBER, 2007: not posted.
TUESDAY SEPTEMBER 25, 2007: DR. HERBERT TAYLOR, VICE PRESIDENT AND CORPORATE SECRETARY OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF PHILADELPHIA, "THE OUTLOOK FOR THE U.S. ECONOMY". Our program committee really timed this right, for it's a topic on everyones mind after the recent jolt to the market. Dr. Taylor will address address questions that are on all of our minds: What are the prospects for the U.S. economy over the coming months? What are the positive factors and risks? Is Old Man Recession lerking about, or will a resilient U.S. economy drive him away?
For those of you who have heard Dr. Taylor before, you know he's "spot-on" with his perceptions of both the U.S. economy and the FED's role and limitations in managing it. Moreover, he's tops at fielding questions, as you'll find out after his presentation.
FOCUS: Just in case you missed it in school, our President, Dr. Gerald Levin will present an "instant expert" course, "Federal Reserve 101", starting at 7:00. Get a fast semester of understanding in only minutes. You'll then be ready for Dr. Taylors view of the future, as well as his comments on the FED's role in shaping that future.
EFTs - the Efficient, Transparent and Flexible Alternative of Today with Mr. Daving Cohen, Claymore Securities: It is a fund, is it a tradable security, is it unique. Yes, the EFT provides the best of a mutual fund and a
listed security or is it something new and different? Yes! Originally confined to only passively managed indexed portfolios, ETFs have bloomed into unique sector funds and are now starting to be implimented
as in a variety of ways, offering investors new ways to both invest and speculate. Today, some ETFs are even sliding into the field of actively managed pools.
So there is a place for ETFs in almost any portfolio - from a dull buy and hold to one with sector perspectives for the short to
intermediate time frame.
Tonight we are fortunate to have Mr. Cohen, who manages product development for local Claymore Securities, as our guest. He'll be giving us his perspective of the ETFs
of today and how they fit into our plans as well as letting us know just how the industry is developing and what the ETFs of tomorrow should look link.
This is a unique advantage to get a look from the insiders point of view as well learning how ETFs give individual investors new and useful tools for their portfolio management.
FOCUS: At 7 PM a roundtable of our Chapter experts will discuss their customer side view of ETFs: how to use them, what you need to know before you invest and some of their interesting experiences.
ECONOMETRICS is the foundation for Dr Garzarelli's famous 14 point model. It's repeatedly enabled her to forcast the future trends, top industry segments and future stoc stars in the market. For example, her 1987 call of the October crash is her most famous call, but only one of her many timely calls. Working from the model, she focuses on finding the sectors that will benefit in the evolving economic and market environment. From there it's a final job to determine which stocks are positioned for top performance in that mutlielement driven environment. Those are the results we can all take to the bank.
Tonight, she will peer into her electron-based Crystal ball and devine just what the future holds for investors like us in 2007 and beyond. What's in store for the Market as a whole? What stocks in each favored sector are top candidates for profitability? It's more that just reading the tea leaves of interest rates, profits, inflation and growth, it's experience, insight, too..
We all know that market and sector movement account most of the movement in the "Average Stock". Yet, we don't want to hold Average Stocks - we want Superior Stocks! Those stocks that have the management expertise, technology, cost control and marketing to outperform even their well performing group. Of course, there is also the undefinable - the psychology of the market participants themselves that can make a game plan go wrong.
Dr. Gazarelli has long been known for the wide-ranging, yet detailed analysis reguired to make those targeted buy calls. It's a long way from the annotated charts and notes she originally used to the refined technology of today, but the talents the same and better. Tonight, she will share her forcasts for an uncertain future amid a nervous hord of market players.
There are very few individuals who singlehandedly revolutionized modern Investing Techniques. "Mr. Candlesticks", Steve Nison, is one unquestionably of them. Candlesticks have become the defacto charting technique for publications and the internet. So simple is the Candlestick that most people don't even recognize that the Candlestick is omnipresent. Yet they immediately sense that the Candlestick is the best way to read the action or the period (day, week or minute) at a glance. But there is much more utility behind this clever, simple technique for presenting price action.
Mr. Nison is the person who recognized that the Japanese Rice traders (the original Candle Charters) had it right - so he adapted, refined and popularized their techniques to analyzing Western and now worldwide investments. While you are familiar with the Candlestick pattern itself, most investors do not appreciate that his big contribution was in developing and applying the understanding of what the candlestick patterns really are telling everyone. It's far more than just what a single candlestick tells you (and that's often a lot more than you think). It's about what a group of adjoining candlesticks tell you (and what they do not).
Mr. Nison's books, articles, tutorials and seminars (many for the professional investment community) make a great body of work for anyone who wants to know more about candlesticks. So it's a special pleasure to welcome one of the great names in technical analysis (T.A.) tonight. If you are a novice, he'll quickly bring you up to see on Candlestick Basics and Theory. Then he's going to teach you specific and usable techniques that maximize your potential profits and help you avoid costly errors.
Why should you attend no matter what your investing approach and markets traded - stocks, funds, commodities, etc.? It's a mistake to ignore the benefits of T.A., even if you are a rock-ribbed Fundamental afficianto. Remember, Fundamental Analysis tries to tell you about the company. Technical Analysis tells you about the mood of the investing public and therefore the market itself. It's understanding the primarily psychological drivers in the market - why securities girate minute by minute, hour by hour when significant News and Financial reports come seldom. It's why Price (technical) and Value (fundamental) seldom meet. And Candlesticks are the "portable book of knowledge", not some computer imbedded secret. You need only your eyes to benefit. Knowing that, you immediately have an advantage over one dimentional investors, who do not see.
TUESDAY SEPTEMBER 26, 2006: JOHN BUCKINGHAM of Al Frank Management is here. The worthy successor to Al Frank will be telling us how he managed to match and beat Al's long record of beating the market by being a long term holder of stocks "you never heard of". For that was the low-turnover, high profit formula Al developed and long followed. John trained along with Al in doing it then . Now he's doing what Al did and besting the master himself in the process.
and IN OCTOBER: From the Technical Side we get to hear from one of the most famous innovators in technical analysis - Steve Nison. Steve is the pioneer who brought Japanese Candlesticks to America and adapted them from the ancient rice markets to the busy stock market. Yes, that American standard that we all use to make our charts owes it all to him.
And that's not all, for Steve has worked hard to make Candlesticks even more useful than anyone had dreamed. For Candlesticks are not only the best was to see where the market action is on your charts, they are great indicators of where the market is likely going. Again, Steve has done the spadework, making Candlestock patterns prognosticators of profit!
So these two meetings hear two of the best-of-the-best. How, you say, do I get in on this? If you are a local AAII member, take a look at your Member Bulletin that just arrived. Inside you will find a coupon to reserve your September spot. But before you mail it off, take a look at the Season Pass offer. It's not only a great way to reserve your spot for a whole season of meetings with one mailing, it's a way to earn a saving of effort and money.
If you didn't get a Bulletin or misplaced it, just go to the AAII National Web Sites Philadelphia Chapter Section. There you can download a copy of the bulletin. Plus, remember, guests and non-members can come, too. By making your advance reservation, you ensure we hold a seat for you and again save you money.
Meanwhile, make a note to check back here after Labor Day for more details.
Our Chapter Meeting Schedule for 2006-2007 starts on September 26, 2006. We are most fortunate to have Mr. John Buckingham, Chairman of Al Frank Management as our featured speaker. Long an associate of the legendary Al Frank, he continues (and excells) in the Al Frank tradition of finding underappreciated niche stocks, buying them for the long term and then reaping the profits. A typical "Al Frank" holding period is YEARS, typically 5 years or more!
Yet returns (using stocks in the Al Frank Funds (as reported by national publications) or in the newsletter lists, as reported by Mark Hulbert and others) remain exceptional. It's a tribue to developing and adhering to a sound investment philosophy. So in hard work, spirit and practice, Mr. Buckingham, is a worthy successor to the legendary Mr. Frank. Find out how he does it and what he does it with at this informative meeting
More information on this meeting will be posted during the Summer. Chapter Management is now finalizing arrangements for the full season meeting schedule. As the new season approaches additional Chapter meeting information will be posted here.
Welcome Mr. IRA M. LUBERT, Chairman LUBERT-ADLER MANAGEMENT, INC, speaking on "REAL ESTATE PRIVATE EQUITY fUNDS - An alternative to Stocks and Bonds."
Here is a special chance to get a intimate perspective on a topic you may not know enough about. For Mr. Lupert is not an advisor, observer or mere expert, but a real "player". For example, his firm owns the hotel we will be meeting it. And it's only one of the many hands-on real estate investments he's involved in. Call that real battlefield experience, not the textbook version we often learn from.
What is of special interest if that a significant portion of his real estate battlefield is right here - the Philadelphia area. That's a special advantage for local investors, as it's a lot easier to keep in touch with local economics, local trends and local potential than it is with investments located half a continent or world away. And when his focus does shift to other areas of opportunity elsewhere, it's in conjunction with acknowledged local experts there. Yes, "Knowing the territory" is important to more than just the "Music Man", it;s key to "Real Estate Man", too.
"Diversification" and "Alternative Investments": two watchwords during the last decade in investing. Most of us started investing in Mutual Funds - once we got past simple investments via our local bank. Next came a "plunge" into individual stocks, sometimes with a few shares in the firm we worked for. As time went on and our portfolios grew, we were tempted into "expanding our horizons". That diversification was often into hard to understand Options, Futures, Commodities; and more recently, a host of sophisticated "derivative investments". Diversification: promised superior returns and often delivered HIGHER RISK as we ventured into the complex economics inherient in derivative investing.
Yet all around us was one of the best routes to wealth - real estate. Traditionally real estate has made more ordinary folks rich, seeming by just being lucky. Surely your house (or a house you once had) delivered profits you didn't expect.
But how to take the next step, a step into the world of professional real estate investing? During the last decade, REITs have been popular and profitable path for the little guy who wants to get into real estate investing.
Mr. Lupert now brings us one step further into that world, as he explains what his fund, a real estate equity fund, is and how it (and other similar funds) participate in professionally managed investment-quallity real estate developement and operation. He'll be projecting what the future may hold in this high return world of investing as well as how we can blend such funds into our existing portfolio.
In addition to his presentation, Mr. Lubert answer your questions afterwords.
What are the top growth waves for 2006 and beyond? Which stocks offer the best potential in those waves, Should you focus on Energy, Technology, Health Care or other sectors. And which sectors should be out of your portfolio NOW. For deep down inside, Tobin is a stock picker and tonight is about stock picking.
Remember, the post office, your travel agent, your stock broker (er, investment advisor) and a lot of other people you might not talk to frequently now that you Changewaved yourself into the new way of doing things. Remember the ailments that they could not treat well or at all. Even the cars that really didn't last more than five years. Those are just a few of the Changewaves that have changed the world and your daily life forever. Changewaves are what happened to them and a lot of other things that are "not there anymore". As you gain the skill to anticipate what the next Changewave is and who are the likely winners; you've earned a new tool for investment success. And Tobin is the man to teach you how. Tonight is the night, you will be ChangeWave-d too.
Remember, Tobin not only names the names, he talks about the Wy and How part of the investment eqHe'll tequation. So with his rapid fire delivery tonight, will be not only a pathway to better profits but a fun event. Be sure to bring pen, paper and perhaps a few questions. For Tobin loves to talk stocks and you will love to listen.
FOCUS: At 7:00, our focus topic will be on "I'm ChangeWave-d, Are You?". If you haven't read Tobins Books ("ChangeWave" and "Changewave 2.0"), you will need this mini-review and tutorial to understand the ChangeWave lingo and philosophy. In a few minutes, we will bring you up to speed on Tobins ChangeWave concepts. We will outline Tobins basic concepts, run a few examples and even suggest a mental exercize or two. That leaves more time for Tobin more time to talk about what he does best - presenting the ChangeWave stocks that will perform during these unpredictable (to most, not Tobin) times.
To an extent, the Focus will be my personal view, abstracting sections from his book and passing along what I have found most useful from hearing Tobin speak at numerous Money Shows and from reading his publications and ChangeWave service (some of which is free, too). Not as exciting as hearing it straight from Tobin, but certainly helpful in understanding his ideas before Tobin starts the heavy lifting to put you where the money is.
(You remember MARCH, that's the month we hope does not feature a mid-month blizzard - its' OK if in comes in or goes out line a lion. We want to avoid the winter woes that result in holding a winter meeting on a night when Mother Nature does not want us to. It's a lesson we learned during the past few years of winter delight.)
So what's the tip:. Well, it's with the warming weather, our spring trio of Chapter Meetings will be HOT. Consider:
MARCH 14, 2006: (Important Date and Time Change) Ralph Accumpura (Note: This is a EARLY 6 PM meeting start!)
NOTE: Mr. Acompura was forced to miss the meeting due to illness. Luckily, we obtained a wonderful fill-in speaker who not only covered not only his approach to Technical Analysis but his favorite ETF - based approach to investing.
It was an amazing bit of luck and coincidence. Dr. Marvin Appel is the son of Gerald Appel, the originator of the powerful MACD (Moving Average Convergance - Divergance) Technical Analysis indicator. The great conicidence is that the senior Mr.Appel had spoken to our Chapter almost exactly 10 years ago.
But it was not like-father,like son as Dr. Appel, MD has careers in both medicine and research and now works as an Investment Advisor/Manager. Yet in one way it was, for both were most impressive speakers with a fine message and clear delivery. So our special thanks to him for making the long trip from Long Island on mere hours notice.
APRIL 25, 2006: Tobin Smith (the ChangeWave Delight and with the usual 7PM Focus and Speaker-to-follow pattern back)
MAY 23, 2006: It's REIT TIME again - Time to check in on that topical market again.
Let's face it. These are not meetings to miss! Hot speakers, hot topics (and I expect more than a few HOT TIPS on HOT STOCKS). I can assure you from hearing both at Money Show presentations, that the first two of the trio are some of the best speakers in terms of message, investment information and presentation going. So mark your calendar, check your mail (for the AAII Announcements) and DO NOT MISS A SPRING MEETINGI'll see you there......
Change and innovation have become the investors companion throughout the the past decades. Individual investors have achieved access to information and analytical tools that rival those your account executive once had exclusive access to. Costs have dropped sharply. As a result, investor awareness and sophistication has matured rapidly.
Unfortunately, many of the new investment products developed have been designed more with an eye to offering the broker and his employeer a stream of compensation in the face of declining commision revenue that with an advantage for the individual investor. Low cost ETFs are quite different! Superficially, they function much like the traditional Index Mutual Fund. Yet they trade continuously at market prices and commissions. In addition to instanteous liguidity, the structure of the ETF puts the owner in control of the tax efficiency of the ERF. New forms of ETFs, just reaching the market, include "managed" ETFs and commodity-based ETFs add new potential and flexibility.
As Investors become familiar with ETFs, strategies to exploit their unique characteristics will evolve. Tailoring strategies to your exact investment approach and needs will allow ETFs to be useful to both traditional Mutual Fund investors and non-fund investors alike. Clearly Vanguard (with their VIPER offerings) recognizes the potential of providing creative investors with yet another low cost strategic tool. Mr. Archards is the ideal person to show us how VIPERs and other ETFs fit into our personal investment program.
OCTOBER 25, 2005, 7:45 PM: Mr. Eugene Peroni, Jr. Senior Managing Director, Equity Research, Claymore Associates, LLC: "Technical Analysis Applied to Equity Portfolio Management":
Most of us think of Technical Analysts as gadflys of the day trade. Not so! 'Gene Peroni has used long used his variety of Technical Analysis to make a lot of people very happy. For years, he's demonstrated the soundness of this approach through his annual "pick and hold" lists. Their superior return proved solid Technical and Fundamental Analysis make medium term Static portfolio investment practical and profitable. No risky (and high cost) flittering from momentum stock to hotter stock. In fact, Peroni Picks are typically unexciting; until, that is, they move up as he expects. A "pick em, hold 'em" strategy the passive investor can sleep with.
Tonight, Mr. Peroni will be showing us those solid techniques, that hard-work process and the results. He'll show us how to find places today in the market where opportunity lurks for the stable investor. Some are in niches that have been overlooked by the modern investor - others, solid values in plain view, ones sophisticated investors can't be bothered with. He'll be doing this in the context of todays difficult markets. Best of all, he'll show us that Technical Analysis is a tool for all time frames.
A Peroni Night is always a highlight of an AAII season, and your evening here will show why. So come prepared with pen, paper and your question list, too.
FOCUS, 7 PM: "What is Technical Analysis?" Our CI SIG has long had a secret weapon, Mr. Stuart Shapiro. Tonight, we'll letting this one savvy cat out of the bag. For Stu's not only an great Technical Analyst and teacher, but a creative, disciplined and diligent one. His aptly-named "Art of the Chart" CI SIG Feature and more recent "BuyCycle" seminars and book have demonstrated his analytic scope and growth.
Stu started investing relying on his artists eye for finding repeating (profitable) patterns. His technical side found a way to mechanize boring searching. Common sense said, "KISS" (Keep It Simple Stupid). If it isn't clear and understandable; there must be a better way. So Stu's a relentless seeker - he's always theorizing, exploring, carefully recording and analyzing; always climbing the hill to a better viewpoint. Amazingly, Stu spends more time improving his system than actually picking his stock investments. Partly, it's to accomodate an ever-changing market; partly, it's to incorporate new concepts and techniques as they prove out and partly, it's to maximize his "eye-training" and experience.
His evolved system is unique; combining computer driven filtering and eyeball-based final selection, all centered on his stock chart patterns. Yet, you can't compare his approach with conventional Technical Analysis; as it incorporates market and sector performance metrics, filter based selection, Fundamental Analysis, and more to target those timely stocks. It's significant that while Stu's "tool kit" is tuned to serve his current medium term investment needs; his tools are simple, open and readily adaptable to support your personal skills and approach to investing. That indeed is the real "Art of the Chart".
Tonight Stuart will be introducing T.A. basics, focused to support your deepened understanding of Mr. Peroni's message. Meanwhile, he'll be opening your eyes to visual and mechanical analytical techniques you can use independently. Remember, while Stu isn't on T.V. (YET), as is Gene; he's locally available at monthly CI SIGs and through his teaching and mentoring.
If you study Trading Systems (as we do at the CI SIG), you find that almost every Systems book starts with Stocks and ends up talking Commodities and Futures. The professions know that there are more opportunities, more predictable momentum perofmance and, often, less risk than in stocks. That is especially true, for when the stock market is in the dumps; Commodity and Futures markets can remain low-risk, profitable places to trade.
Increasingly, it's the case as a world economy view displaces a now provincial, domestic viewpoint. World events, resource wars and global politics are driving our once cozy domestic bliss. For the last two decades, we've lived in a "Goldilocks" world: a glut of cheap commodities, low inflation, technology advances and a strong US Dollar make investing profitable and secure. Slowly, we looked outside of the US for opportunities, which often resulted as US domestic firms when international. Perhaps a few "G7" firms crept into our portfolios, too. Yet, we remained domestic investors at the core.
In only a few years, the world view is now suddenly upon us. It's gone from French wines in the basement to a Russian LUKOS gas station or a Venzualian Citgo station on teh corner. It's moving to become a global "war" to secure dependable energy, food and other resouces. Today, Chinese and India firms are scouring the Americas to lock in deals. At least, the word Commodities is in the daily press if not in our portfolios.
Mr. Hummels topic tonight therefore is of interest to all investors. His focus is on a world with shortages in ranging from energy to grain, threats to the world currency system from an unstable US Dollar and why traditional portfolio diversification may not work for todays investors. He highlights these and other important factors that should mold your new "world portfolio". Yes, you may become a commodities investor - or merely invest in traditional securities as an commodities alert investor. The important thing is that you start now to be commodities aware in all of your investments.
You say you don't know where to start in Commodities. Preceeding Mr. Hummel, is your real starter. Together these two presentations will guide you.
FOCUS: Investing in Commodities 101: Our own Dr. Gerald Levin brings us all up to speed with the ultimate cram course on Commodities. Each Focus presentation is designed to lead into the nights presentation. Tonight "Dr. G" has a bigger task. Most of use have only a casual knowledge of commodities outside of the prices at the local Gas Pump and perhaps the evening news.
Just what are Commodities? How does commodity investment returns compare with traditional stocks and bonds - and at what risk? How do you evaluate commodity investments? How does an individual invest in them? Then, on to understanding and application with Mr. Hummel.
We may not have the "new you", much less, your "new portfolio". Yet we do have a creditable start after tonight.
Here is additional information on Chapter Meetings:
LOCATION: During the current season the Chapter Meeting Location is at the RADISON, Valley Forge hotel. . 1160 First Avenue, King of Prussia, PA. 19406 (Telephone 610-119-2000). Driving directions may be obtained from the AAII National Web site (see the previous paragraph for a link), your personal copy of the meeting announcement or from the Getting There page on this site.
Once at the hotel, look for the AAII posters to direct you too the meeting room, which will vary from month to month.
You can also find a small map of the area around the hotel at "www.radisson.com."
Links on the right side of the same page provide a gateway to other Chapter specific resources. Note that the our Philadelphia Chapter web site contains full details of activities at our four Special Interest Groups and other information (such as weather related changes) that are more quickly updated than allowed by the production cycle of our mailed Chapter Meeting Announcements.
Links on the left side of the screen vector you to AAII-NATIONAL site resources many of which are available to members and non-members alike. In addition there are additional resources limited to AAII members and subscribers to many AAII Member Publications.
Please bookmark this address, for it's a reference to all National and Chapter information and activities as well as a link to our Philadelphia Chapter web site.
MEMBER BULLETIN: If you don't get your Member Bulletin in the mail, check the AAII National Web Site to see and print a copy. See the bulletin for full details on how to reserve a seat and get to the meetings. Note that non-members can attend the meetings (on a space available basis), too.
If you are an AAII member and do not receive the Philadelphia Chapter Meeting Announcements (and also those for other Chapters you may be interested in) please phone AAII Member Services at 800-428-2244 to get your name added to the mailing list.
REMEMBER, CHECK THIS PAGE FOR LATE BREAKING INFORMATION: When the weather or other factors make a last minute change to a meeting schedule, we try to post a notice here and also distribute an e-mail alert (be sure your are signed up for the chapters e-mail ist). Always remember to check-in if in doubt.
In addition to Chapter Meetings, the AAII Philadelphia Chapter has four active Special Interest Groups (SIGs): Computerized Investing (CI), Mutual Fund (MF), Options and Strategies (OPS) and the Value Investing (VI). Each as it's own web page here on the site with details of meetings, location and other information.
Chapter meetings are held 5-6 times a year as announced and most of our SIGs meet monthly on a prescheduled day-of-the-month. Keep up to date by checking each groups activities. Look below for Chapter Meeting Information. Follow highlighted hyperlinks to information about each SIGs meeting activities. Below you'll find additional links to local and our national AAII organization plus other investor interests. Doors open about 6:30 PM. You can drop by one of the booths outside the meeting room for more AAII, Chapter, and SIG information or to talk with chapter leaders and other members.
At 7:00 PM, we normally have a short Focus presentation by one of our Special Interest Groups. At 7:45 PM, there is a short News and Introduction of the Speaker followed by the main speaker at 8:00 PM. The speakers presentation is followed by the traditional Q/A session plus often there is a chance to speak with the presentor informally.
Please read the full meeting announcement for possible variations in this format. Our 2006 season of Chapter Meetings starts in September. John Buckingham will be our featured speaker. Since taking over from Al Frank, he has continued the Al Frank tradition of long term Buy and Hold profits from carefully selected stocks that normally escape norice by the investment community. This approach has allowed individual investors in the Al Frank funds and subscribers to the investment service to reap consistanct profits.
Earlier historical summaries of previous Chapter meetings can be found at the CHAPTER EVENT HISTORY.
TUESDAY NOVEMBER 25, 2008: WHAT IS HAPPENING TO OUR ECONOMY discussed by Dr. William Dunkleburg of Temple University Economics Department and the chief economist for the
National Federation of Independent Business.
TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER, 2008: (Part III) PERSONAL FINANCE AND WEALTH MINI-CONFERENCE: RETIREMENT PLANNING STRATEGIES': Unusual to start of the season with a finish. For to open the AAII/Philadelphia Chapters 2008-2008 Season we bring this popular spring run of this mini-conference to an end (at least for now).
Just a peek: We have two great fall sessions coming in October and November, with more 2-3 meetings after the new year.
On May 22nd the Chapter will be bring our 2006+2007 season to a close with a special guest Mr. Jean Marie Eveillard. He's famous as a very successful international fund manager and investment adviser for over a quarter century. His focus has been on internation value investing, a field that has been most successful for his share holders and customers. What's important is that he's a student not only of the internation markets but of both Graham and Buffets approach to finding and investing in true value securities. With the emerging focus on worldwide investing today, his experience and insites into what is sometimes a confusing sector we will all benefit from what he's learned from this emerging field of investing. How he applies traditional American approaches to the worlds new opportunities will be expecially
significant as we all adapt a more international perspective. Remember, our four Special Interest Groups will be active throughout the summer months. We'll keep you informed of our 2007-2008 season plans for we already have plans for what should be another interesting season in the works
SEPTEMBER 27, 2006: JOHN HUMMEL, President and Founder of AIS Futures Management and AIG Capital Management, "The Secular Bull Market in Commodities: Opportunities and Risks for Invstors"
For more information (especially if you didn't get our Chapter Meeting Announcement mailing), be sure to check into the the AAII Philadelphia Chapter Home Page . Once there, click on the top "Upcoming Chapter Meeting" link to see a copy of the current Chapter Meeting Announcement.
CHAPTERCHAPTER MEETINGS - normally 4th Tuesday (exceptions, if any, highlighted "###" below), months as scheduled, 7 P.M.